FACTUAL BASIS FOR FORECAST

Sources for statements in text:

Scientific consensus is that to avoid the worst disasters global average temperature must be kept to about 2 degrees Celsius: Martin Parry et al., “Squaring Up To Reality,” Nature Reports: Climate Change, May 29, 2008 (http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0806/full/climate.2008.50.html).

Scientists calculate this can be done if Greenhouse Gases are held to no more than 450 ppm: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report: Working Group I, table 10.8; Working Group III, Summary for Policymakers, Table SPM.5 (2007) (http://www.ipcc.ch/).

Some prominent scientists argue the figure should be 350 ppm: James Hansen et al.,“Target Atmospheric C02: Where Should Humanity Aim?,” 2 Open  Atmospheric Science Journal 2008, 217-231 (http://www.bentham-open.org/pages/content.php?TOASCJ/2008/00000002/00000001/217TOASCJ.SGM). 

World is already at about 385 ppm and growing at more than 2 ppm  a year: The Carbon Project, “Carbon Budget and Trends 2007” (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbontrends/index.htm). 

To hold at 450 ppm, Greenhouse Gases must be cut 50% below 1990 levels, beginning immediately,and achieved by 2050: The 2007 Bali Climate Declaration by Scientists (http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/) (search “Bali”).

Reaching global 50% cut means high-emitting industrial countries must cut about 80%:  The calculation assumes global cuts will be aimed to achieve a per-capita emissions average.  Committee on Climate Change, “Building a low-carbon economy--the UK’s contribution to tackling climate change,” Chapter 1, section 5 (2008) (http://hmccc.s3.amazonaws.com/pdf/TSO-ClimateChange.pdf)  The UK has now enacted the 80% target into law. (http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/uk/legislation/index.htm) Others have similarly calculated that the United States and other industrialized countries will need to cut about 80% by 2050.  See, e.g., Union of Concerned Scientists, “A Target for U.S. Emissions Reductions” (http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/solutions/big_picture_solutions/a-target-for-us-emissions.html)  An Australian report puts that country’s needed cut at 90%.  Ross Garnaut, “The Garnaut Climate Change Review,” chapter 12 (2008) (http://www.garnautreview.org.au/chp12.htm)

Kyoto requires cuts by nations emitting about one-third of the global total; had the U.S. ratified it, the treaty would have covered about half: The Pew Center states that Kyoto without the U.S. applies to about 32% of nations’ emissions, and World Resources Institute puts U.S. emissions at about 18% of the world total. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, “Q & A: Kyoto Protocol” (http://www.pewclimate.org/what_s_being_done/in_the_world/kyoto_enters_into_force/russia_kyoto_q___a.cfm).  World Resources Institute, “CAIT Yearly Emissions” 2005 (http://cait.wri.org/cait.php?page=yearly) The same Pew webpage notes that Kyoto’s initial targets are about 5% below 1990 levels. 

Kyoto was a first step and a more robust international agreement is now being negotiated under UN auspices and is due to be completed in Copenhagen in December 2009. The negotiations are difficult and contentious.See website of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (http://unfccc.int/2860.php).

The United Kingdom, Germany, and California have all officially committed to cutting 80%--and Norway to be “carbon neutral”--by 2050.  UK: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/uk/legislation/index.htm.  Germany: http://www.london.diplo.de/Vertretung/london/en/04/Science__and__technology/Climate__Change/Klima-energie-paket14-12-07,property=Daten.pdf. California: Governor’s Executive Order S-3-05, http://gov.ca.gov/executive-order/1861/. Norway: www.norway.org.uk/policy/news/carbon-neutral.htm

One energy expert calls offsets“rip-offsets,” analogizing them to mortgage-backed securities; academic and government studies have revealed many of the Kyoto offsets to be bogus. The expert is Joseph Romm of Climate Progress, whose archive of articles on offsets is at http://climateprogress.org/category/offsets/.  Academic study: Michael Wara, “Measuring the Clean Development Mechanism’s Performance and Potential,” 55 UCLA Law Review 1759 (2008). Government study: U.S. Government Accountability Office, “International Climate Change Programs: Lessons Learned from the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme and the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism,” (November 2008) (http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09151.pdf)

List of catastrophes to be expected:

Drawn from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report: Working Group II, chapters 3-8, 19 (2007) (http://www.ipcc.ch/); Martin Parry et al., “Squaring Up To Reality,” Nature Reports: Climate Change, May 29, 2008 (http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0806/full/climate.2008.50.html); Timothy M. Lenton, et al., “Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system,” 105 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 1786-1793 (February 12, 2008) (http://www.pnas.org/content/105/6/1786.abstract?maxtoshow=&HITS=10&hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&fulltext=tipping+elements+lenton&searchid=1&FIRSTINDEX=0&resourcetype=HWCIT). 

Temperature Graphic:

Constructed from data drawn from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report: Working Group II, Summary for Policymakers, Figure SPM2 (2007) (http://www.ipcc.ch/); Martin Parry et al., “Squaring Up To Reality,” Nature Reports: Climate Change, May 29, 2008 (http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0806/full/climate.2008.50.html); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report: Working Group I, Summary for Policymakers, page 12, footnote 14 on projected “SRES scenarios” trajectories (2007) (http://www.ipcc.ch/); The Carbon Project, “Carbon Budget and Trends 2007” (http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbontrends/index.htm); International Energy Agency, “World Energy Outlook 2008,” page 3 (http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2008/).